After 29 March the rules of the game will change. Even the chief Brexiteers have conceded that in the immediate aftermath of Brexit the United Kingdom will suffer an economic and financial shock magnitudes greater than the 2007 credit crunch. Jacob Rees-Mogg is on record stating it might take fifty years for recovery to begin. The word from Ireland tonight was “brace for impact.” After 29 March – just 73 days from now – Britain’s economic and financial survival will become dependent on Scotland’s oil and gas resources to a degree to which it never has in the past.
To put this is Texas terms: We’ve struck oil. We are rich. We are richer than our wildest dreams! But, wait, we’re not. We are not an independent country. We voted No to independence in 2014, believing we were broke, and that the oil was running it. We bought the lie that what oil we had left wouldn’t be worth a pittance. The same people who were laughing at us then are laughing at us now; that oil bonanza – which they knew was in the pipeline – will not be coming to us. It will be going right where it has always gone, to London.
Britain has been banking on Scotland’s oil since it was first discovered, and Scotland – as a result of Westminster’s use of this 'uncertain' commodity – has become the only oil producing nation in the world to get poorer as a result of striking black gold.
In 1868 the US government signed the Treaty of Laramie, formally recognising the independence of Lakotah. This treaty has never been rescinded, just routinely ignored by the United States in its drive to annihilate the Native American, or First Peoples, population.
Super-power states think differently about the purpose of energy. It is for this reason that the oil producing states of the Middle East remain primary locations of international strategic interest, and why so many of these countries have been reduced to rubble in the past four decades.
These winner-takes-all games, like poker, in the end lead only to a show-down. As the geographical expansion of states has come to an end, the only avenues now available for expansion are consumption and finance. Rising population dictates increased use of oil, therefore increasing demand.
Without beads to offer the chiefs in Berlin and Brussels Europe has nothing to gain from a petulant little Britain which wants the best of both worlds. Cameron clearly needs Europe more than Europe needs him.
In one respect we can see the Syrian refugees as economic migrants, as there is a hell of a lot of outside money being put on the table, and it is their lives that are at stake.