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By Jason Michael
Around Europe the growing suspicion is that the UK will walk away from the Article 50 negotiations without securing a deal. Germany and France have assumed this will happen, but now the rest are getting ready for the failure of the British economy.
European news agencies haven’t yet developed a taste for Britain’s sensationalist and Americanised entertainment news, and – if stereotypes are anything to go by – the Germans don’t mess about when it comes to finances. While it’s true that they have a dog in the race when it comes to Brexit, it is still safe to say that – in the main – we can trust what they have to say more than we can Britain’s pro-establishment media machine, and from one side of Europe to the other our EU neighbours aren’t holding out much hope for the success of the UK post-Brexit.
Economic forecasters at Deutsche Bank have stated this week that the pound sterling is now on the precipice of another serious devaluation, facing a drop of up to 15 per cent against the dollar once the Article 50 negotiations are underway. A drop of this magnitude promises nothing short of devastation for the entire UK economy. According to the OEC Britain is the world’s fourth largest import economy, relying to the tune of $181bn more on imports than on exports. Any rise in the cost of the euro and the dollar to the pound will send prices upwards in every sector of the British economy.
Ireland in particular, the UK being its biggest trade partner, is worried about the outcome of London’s talks with Brussels – and the mood is not exactly one of confidence. Tongues are wagging in Dublin, with rumours in the Department of Foreign Affairs saying the good money is on Britain walking away from the table without securing a deal. This would be catastrophic for both Britain and Ireland, ensuring for both that the annual cost in trade tariffs would be as much – if not more – as the cost of EU membership. Cliff Taylor, considering this prospect in the Irish Times, is rather more optimistic. He imagines that Theresa May’s “No deal is better than a bad deal” is a bluff, suggesting that after the sums have been done “almost any deal is better than no deal.”
What Taylor hasn’t considered – which, oddly, the Germans and the French have been thinking for a while – is that Little Britain is actually going to jump. Theresa May and her neo-imperialist band of Conservative Brexiteers seem hell bent on going through with this no matter the cost, and this is the root of all the uncertainty. They are capable of anything – and this is frightening. In the midst of all the confusion the one thing that has become most clear is that this grim forecast – if Britain does indeed go for it – is not media spin or the EU’s Project Fear. This is mathematics. If the UK fails to secure a deal the British economy will rapidly go belly up.